Yeah I know I'm not Paul (although I often wish I was). And I know the posts always go Paul,Alex,Paul,Alex and so on. I apologise to all fans of Paul (ok, just matt m), that Im jumping ahead of the queue and blogging in his rightful spot. Paul will be back soon, in full colour, and blogging up a storm in his own calculated and logical way. Until that time tho, heres me - ranting about politics and using the term 'lol' in a far too liberal fashion...I heart capitalism. Not the ugly, gross social inequities that are too often the byproduct of the free market -no, those things suck. But the general idea that people get rewarded for their hard work and talents, that individuals determine how much of something we get based on how happy it makes us and that anyone, regardless of original social position, who works hard enough could become a leader...well, its kind of a cool idea in theory. Needs a lot of work to tidy up the fringes, and there is a major role for a government in ensuring that there is some minimum standard of rules and incontestable rights that all parties have to play by, and also ensuring that we bandy about concepts like 'equality of opportunity' we're not forgetting that your opportunities shouldn't be limited by the lottery of birth. But overall, its a good basis for society, and it encourages entrepreneurship, individual freedoms and allows citizens themselves to define the society they want to live in.
That's why two things are currently making me emo, whenever I read the paper and see that the stockmarkets are doing their best Hindenburg impersonation, or whenever I talk to someone who uses money, likes using money, and who is sad they wont have as much money to use soon. The first is that people are confidently predicting the demise of capitalism and the monetary economy (not sure what it is to be replaced with, perhaps we will barter shiny beads for bread, or some Hobbesian every-man-for-himself state of nature.) The second is that people appear positively gleeful about this.
In my first part of this two-part financial blogstravaganza I talked about how the leaders had badly failed us in this current financial crisis (at least, thats what I thought I was talking about.) In today's post I want to go further, and talk about the problems that exist when economics meets politics, and how some irreconcilable differences have hampered attempts to fix things. And cos Julian asked me really nicely to do so, Ill attempt to show my point through the use of America's recent $700 billion 'bail-out' plan.
First lets talk about the economics of the bail-out, which to me seem essentially pragmatic and necessary. I'll repeat that my grasp of economics is shaky (bit of an understatement, like calling Hitler 'not that nice'), so if anyone wants to show me how I've analysed this wrong on an economic level, well Id be happy to concede the point. (Note: Ill talk about the political arguments soon.)
The way I understand the bail-out plan was this: financial companies/banks etc gave mortages to people with no assets or income. When house prices fell, people now owned mortages that were worth more than the home, and had no way of paying it back. So they walked away from the home, and the banks lost money on the bad debts that couldnt be repaid. BUT due to some grand financial wizardry, all the mortages, from the sub-prime to the ridiculous, had been put under the same category of 'securities' on the balance sheet. So...banks had no way of telling the good mortages from the bad mortages, so had to take a loss on the whole of their mortage loans, leading to billions of dollars in losses. Some of these banks collapsed, people lost confidence in the sharemarket, stocks fell, people lost money, more people lost confidence, less money in stocks, more companies collapsed. and so on and so forth in some sort of sad financial failtornado. I hope I got that part of it right.
K, so what the bail-out appears to be doing is the government, as the only people with the funds to afford it, are offering to buy up ALL these bad 'securities'. This gives banks some capital, returns them to a clean balance sheet, and hopefully sets a new and credible market price, so private investors who are currently sitting at home with their money in the mattress or in a cookie jar may be encouraged to come in, inject some investment back into the financial system, and make everything start humming again. After the initial crisis is over, the Government can subject the companies to some more vigorous regulation, and ensuring the kind of in hindsight ridiculous risks can never be allowed to happen again. (Was the entire mortage moneymaking scheme really resting on the fact house-prices would NEVER come down?) Thus, the US Government could have broken the cycle of panic and pessimism that I mentioned in my previous post, the pessimism that exacerbates market slumps and turns a downturn into a depression.
So to my mind, the economics of the bail-out were, and still are pragmatic and neccessary. It was a plan that desperately should have passed through Congress the first time, to give investors the idea that this was a plan that deserved support, that fixed the crisis, and had positive long-term benefits. When it failed to pass in the Congress, that sent out the message that not only was it a crappy solution, but also that leaders had NO IDEA how they were going to solve this, and it was a good idea to run away to your underground bunker while you still had the money to afford tinned food.
But the bail-out didnt fail because it was bad economics. It failed because it was bad politically. Just look at the tag it was given 'bail-out', which suggests that quite the opposite of being a socially beneficial economic plan, it was a victory for special interest and political cronyism. Both the left and the right found something to hate about this plan. Both were wrong.
Lets look to the right's opposition first. It went something like this: 'capitalism rests on the principle of competition and entrepreneurship. It works because people who make good decisions get a good reward (more monies), and people who make bad decisions lose. The finance companies made a bad decision in lending to people who couldnt afford it. A committment to the free market requires that they fail, and any alternative is 'socialism'.
My response to this is very simple. When markets fail, governments are the best institution to make them work again. Goverments can commit the most funds and have the power to introduce not just new rules for a company, but can actually change the practices of an entire sector of the economy through regulation. So, if the sector that is failing is vital for the economy or indeed for society, the goverment has a duty to intervene, and prop up that sector. Banks, which lend the money that allows businesses to invest and grow, are pretty much the most crucialest things there are. So, government intervention to not let banks fail isnt communism, its common sense.
I have a bit more sympathy with the arguments of the left. These arguments go: 'When so many citizens cant afford healthcare, cant pay their bills, are losing their jobs -why should each American pay $2500 of their tax dollars to bail-out the bank fat-cats that didnt give a fuck about Joe Sixpack while they packed six-figure daily salaries into their wallets'. Its true- and the worst part about the bail-out plan is that it wont stop house prices falling or return the economy to its pre-mortgagefuck position. So, working-class Americans will still be losing their jobs, homes and livelihoods while the greedy pricks who took bad risks to take big short-term money, despite inevitable long-term losses. go back to making millions.
Its hard to accept, but not fixing the financial sector has woeful consequences for all sectors of society. When banks are struggling to meet their losses, they are forced to withhold assests and withhold cash. So interest rates increase which make it harder to invest. Companies and individuals, fearful of a banking sector collapse also withhold their money. Company managers will look to cut down on costs, and employees. Unemployment rises. Less people are buying stuff, that further tightens the squeeze on businesses. Businesses fail, and people lose jobs -everyone loses. So, while its painful to admit, we need those 'fat-cats' in their corporate diamond towers making their monies, to protect the jobs, industries and consumption abilities of ordinary blue-collar citizens.
A lot of my argument rests on 'short-term hardship for long-term economic survival'. Its the principle on what a lot of economic theory rests - that while some people lose in the short term, everyone wins in the long-term. But its an idea that runs into 3 problems. The first is that no-one is quite sure how long the long-term is, which makes it hard to sell economic ideas in a political system that demand timelines for implementation. Secondly, in democratic systems which vote every 2 (in the US House) years, suggesting that an economic policy will actually HARM your constituents in the short term is about as politically sexy as spongebathing John McCain. Thirdly, explaining economic concepts is often fiendishly difficult, explaining the technical terms and how something will benefit the economy is much harder than explaining social ,black-and-white issues. So good economically sensible plans fail because they dont tick all the political boxes, and politicians retreat to idealogy, and black-and-white thinking. Economics requires consensus, an innate understanding of the political shades of grey and it needs strong leadership to avoid creating market panic and pessimism.
The bailout was a perfect example of what NOT to do in a crisis. And the result was a plan that could have worked, that could have been a stabilizing force for the world economy ended up looking like too little, too late .It was $700 000 000 000 that didnt do anything to stop markets failing, and stopping the globalised world spiralling into a nasty, prolonged recession.
Luckily, Im a law student, and the first thing that happens when people lose everything is they turn on each other and try and gain someone elses everything. Ill be occupied with lawsuits, and have a comfortable salary. The rest of you, well....you're fucked.
Merry Christmas.